There’s a lot of posts, predicting the future of computing and you might wonder why the heck I need to write about it. Well, maybe I can chip in the opinion of an desillusioned ultra-nerd instead of the consumer view. Just so you know my context: using PCs since 16 years, GNU/Linux since 2001 and online since 28.8 to 56k dial-up age. I believe I have seen a number of fads and trends.

1. Desktop computers will not completely disappear

I haven’t owned a desktop computer since my last one broke down, somewhere in 2007. Because there’s no “mainstream” use for these. Laptops have eaten all the share. You can use your USB input devices with the laptop, your external screen. Storage on Laptops is plenty and even if you need more, there’s a multitude of NAS devices and external discs. Upgradability stopped being an issue – I dumped my last Core2 Duo laptop because I was bored, not because it was too slow. A nerd friend of mine argued, he needs an desktop PC, but all points he brought up could be satisfied with a laptop. It is just unflexible thinking.

From my non-nerd friends, hardly anyone has a desktop computer now. What for? I shudder when I think that I could be using a huge, noisy box that is not portable. So while I don’t think desktops will completely disappear, they are becoming as common as mainframes.

2. A tablet is more than most customers will ever need

If you have older parents, you sometimes think which computer to give them, so they can stay connected to the rest of the world. If you have given them a Windows PC or they got it for themselves you’re probably familiar with the regular visits, to fix up and desinfect their installation. If you went with GNU/Linux, you probably had to debug their problems with the operating system. They updated Ubuntu, it doesn’t even boot up anymore. If you got them a Mac, you just spent a lot of money on a machine where they won’t ever use anything more than the browser.

Looking at how “normal” people use their computers, they have exactly two priorities:

1. Let me use my browser to surf the net
2. Don’t bother me with anything else

Lately, a special type of device popped up, that does exactly that: the tablet. While I was critical of netbooks (ugly, small screen, same sucky software) tablets seem to be actually an interesting type of device. To be honest, first time I saw the iPad, I was sceptical, until I realized that this type of device is not meant for me but people like my parents. And my non-nerd friends. And ultimately, I’ll argue in a moment, for me.

Oh, Chromebooks tried to settle for the same niche, as a simplified netbook design that had potential, but as they weren’t pushed aggressively and were too expensive they are just a historical sidenote. Dear manufacturers: noone will buy a device that is basically unknown and more expensive than a full-size laptop. If you really thought this would work out, you’re sillier than expected.

Heck, since I got my smartphone, I stopped carrying my huge 15 inch laptop to university. I don’t ever use this phone for calls, not even fro mobile internet. It is great as an always-with-me-device that is tiny enough that I always have it with me, it rarely breaks down and has enough battery life that I never need to turn it off. I realized that except for programming, that device is plenty enough for mobile use.

3. The move away from individual devices

While the cloud is a grotesquely overused term, it does serve as a great place for storage. I was, like many people hesistant to use it, but after you get over to hand your data to someone else to handle, the upsides are quite an easy sell. I have my contacs “in the cloud”, that is, in my Android address book, that is synchronized with my desktop mail program that is automatically backed up by highly-paid Google guys and not by me who has some other job. Amount I pay for this: 0. I started to synchronize important data between my devices with Dropbox. Also completely for free. The comfort of getting rid of byte-shuffling on USB sticks or E-Mail between my devices is about as big as the switch from the super-small capacity floppies to the huge CD-Rs and then from the read-only CD-Rs to random-access USB sticks.

To quote Sun’s slogan “the network is the computer”, but in a totally different way than Sun expected it to be. This vision was finally realized by Google. See GMail, see Maps, see Android. There’s hardly anything that I cannot do with a browser on any device. GDrive which was announced today continues this trend.

An important point in de-emphasizing the individual device is, that the irreplacable user-data is not bound to the specific device. If I break my phone, that’s sad, but the amount of data-loss is not a problem, since there’s hardly any data unique to the device. There’s a couple of apps and settings that I loose and that is about it. Actually this doesn’t only apply to phones. A friend of mine uses a Macbook Air in the same way, personal data is backed up in the internet, if the device breaks down he could just get a new one and continue where he left of.

4. What about programmers?

Now, many people might argue, ok, that’s for consumers who don’t create content. What about content producers? I suppose for those the desktop, but mainly laptop will stay. Though for programmers, the situation is different now. They can do their work quite fine on tablets. First, there are the browser IDEs. These are ok if you are programming in the language-du-jour and constantly improving. But if you need more flexibility?

Well, I’ve been developing on a virtual server via screen/tmux and a text editor since about 2007 as I realized that I am too lazy to set up my development environment on every new machine, which usually starts with installing my favorite operating system. Having all that in my own personal cloud makes development possible with basically only an SSH client which are available on Linux, Windows, Mac OS X as well as iOS and Android which cover more platforms that I am even likely to use. Incidentally, this blog post is written in exactly this way.

So, what about typing? Many people complain that typing on touchscreens suck. Well, on my phone it certainly is difficult, because it has a crappy digitizer and a small screen. But I still write long E-Mails with it sometimes, and surf with it, even while I use a laptop. And you know what? Bluetooth keyboards exist. While they might not be as good as IBM Model M style clicky keyboards it is still a very much viewable solution and some are actually better than the cheapo wired keyboards that some of my aquaintances use.

If you really need a dedicated system with a “traditional” OS, there is now another possibility: the Rasberry Pi. Thinking of it, this might be one of the most interesting devices for developers ever made. It is true, just 700 MHz but for many things this is already enough. Unless you are compiling huge codebases, the RPi could be a game changer. Thnk of programming books that don’t ship a CD but a full RPi with pre-made environment on SD card. Plus, it runs a full Linux, so you can do multitasking and splitscreen, a field where current tablets lag behind.