There’s a lot of posts, predicting the future of computing and you might wonder
why the heck I need to write about it. Well, maybe I can chip in the opinion of
an desillusioned ultra-nerd instead of the consumer view. Just so you know my
context: using PCs since 16 years, GNU/Linux since 2001 and online since 28.8
to 56k dial-up age. I believe I have seen a number of fads and trends.
1. Desktop computers will not completely disappear
I haven’t owned a desktop computer since my last one broke down, somewhere in
2007. Because there’s no “mainstream” use for these. Laptops have eaten all the
share. You can use your USB input devices with the laptop, your external
screen. Storage on Laptops is plenty and even if you need more, there’s a
multitude of NAS devices and external discs. Upgradability stopped being an
issue – I dumped my last Core2 Duo laptop because I was bored, not because it
was too slow. A nerd friend of mine argued, he needs an desktop PC, but all
points he brought up could be satisfied with a laptop. It is just unflexible
thinking.
From my non-nerd friends, hardly anyone has a desktop computer now. What for? I
shudder when I think that I could be using a huge, noisy box that is not
portable. So while I don’t think desktops will completely disappear, they are
becoming as common as mainframes.
2. A tablet is more than most customers will ever need
If you have older parents, you sometimes think which computer to give them, so
they can stay connected to the rest of the world. If you have given them a
Windows PC or they got it for themselves you’re probably familiar with the
regular visits, to fix up and desinfect their installation. If you went with
GNU/Linux, you probably had to debug their problems with the operating system.
They updated Ubuntu, it doesn’t even boot up anymore. If you got them a Mac,
you just spent a lot of money on a machine where they won’t ever use anything
more than the browser.
Looking at how “normal” people use their computers, they have exactly two
priorities:
- Let me use my browser to surf the net
- Don’t bother me with anything else
Lately, a special type of device popped up, that does exactly that: the tablet.
While I was critical of netbooks (ugly, small screen, same sucky software)
tablets seem to be actually an interesting type of device. To be honest, first
time I saw the iPad, I was sceptical, until I realized that this type of device
is not meant for me but people like my parents. And my non-nerd friends. And
ultimately, I’ll argue in a moment, for me.
Oh, Chromebooks tried to settle for the same niche, as a simplified netbook
design that had potential, but as they weren’t pushed aggressively and were too
expensive they are just a historical sidenote. Dear manufacturers: noone will
buy a device that is basically unknown and more expensive than a full-size
laptop. If you really thought this would work out, you’re sillier than
expected.
Heck, since I got my smartphone, I stopped carrying my huge 15 inch laptop to
university. I don’t ever use this phone for calls, not even fro mobile
internet. It is great as an always-with-me-device that is tiny enough that I
always have it with me, it rarely breaks down and has enough battery life that
I never need to turn it off. I realized that except for programming, that
device is plenty enough for mobile use.
3. The move away from individual devices
While the cloud is a grotesquely overused term, it does serve as a great place
for storage. I was, like many people hesistant to use it, but after you get
over to hand your data to someone else to handle, the upsides are quite
an easy sell. I have my contacs “in the cloud”, that is, in my Android
address book, that is synchronized with my desktop mail program that is
automatically backed up by highly-paid Google guys and not by me who
has some other job. Amount I pay for this: 0. I started to synchronize
important data between my devices with Dropbox. Also completely for
free. The comfort of getting rid of byte-shuffling on USB sticks or
E-Mail between my devices is about as big as the switch from the
super-small capacity floppies to the huge CD-Rs and then from the
read-only CD-Rs to random-access USB sticks.
To quote Sun’s slogan “the network is the computer”, but in a totally different
way than Sun expected it to be. This vision was finally realized by Google. See
GMail, see Maps, see Android. There’s hardly anything that I cannot do with a
browser on any device. GDrive which was announced today continues this trend.
An important point in de-emphasizing the individual device is, that the
irreplacable user-data is not bound to the specific device. If I break my
phone, that’s sad, but the amount of data-loss is not a problem, since there’s
hardly any data unique to the device. There’s a couple of apps and settings
that I loose and that is about it. Actually this doesn’t only apply to phones.
A friend of mine uses a Macbook Air in the same way, personal data is backed up
in the internet, if the device breaks down he could just get a new one and
continue where he left of.
4. What about programmers?
Now, many people might argue, ok, that’s for consumers who don’t create
content. What about content producers? I suppose for those the desktop, but
mainly laptop will stay. Though for programmers, the situation is different
now. They can do their work quite fine on tablets. First, there are the browser
IDEs. These are ok if you are programming in the language-du-jour and
constantly improving. But if you need more flexibility?
Well, I’ve been developing on a virtual server via screen/tmux and a text
editor since about 2007 as I realized that I am too lazy to set up my
development environment on every new machine, which usually starts with
installing my favorite operating system. Having all that in my own personal
cloud makes development possible with basically only an SSH client which are
available on Linux, Windows, Mac OS X as well as iOS and Android which cover
more platforms that I am even likely to use. Incidentally, this blog post is
written in exactly this way.
So, what about typing? Many people complain that typing on touchscreens suck.
Well, on my phone it certainly is difficult, because it has a crappy digitizer
and a small screen. But I still write long E-Mails with it sometimes, and surf
with it, even while I use a laptop. And you know what? Bluetooth keyboards
exist. While they might not be as good as IBM Model M style clicky keyboards it
is still a very much viewable solution and some are actually better than the
cheapo wired keyboards that some of my aquaintances use.
If you really need a dedicated system with a “traditional” OS, there is now
another possibility: the Rasberry Pi. Thinking of it, this might be one of the
most interesting devices for developers ever made. It is true, just 700 MHz but
for many things this is already enough. Unless you are compiling huge
codebases, the RPi could be a game changer. Thnk of programming books
that don’t ship a CD but a full RPi with pre-made environment on SD
card. Plus, it runs a full Linux, so you can do multitasking and
splitscreen, a field where current tablets lag behind.